5 Questions and Answers About the Fall of the Assad Regime in Syria

On November 27, 2024, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) launched, or “Organization for the Liberation of Greater Syria”) a military operation in the northwestern province of Idlib, which has been under its control since 2019. In just a few days, they captured the city of Aleppo and most of northwestern Syria, after which HTS quickly advanced towards the cities of Hama and Homs further south.

According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, a Syrian human rights organization where 11.11.11 cooperates with, at least 27 civilians were killed between November 3 and December 149, 105 of whom were civilians in attacks by the Syrian government army. Assad's army also continued to target hospitals and other civilian infrastructure, including the local office in Idlib of 11.11.11-partner Olive Branch. According to the United Nations, about a million people have fled fighting in northern Syria since November 28. The United Nations warns that refugee camps across the country are bursting at the seams, as winter takes hold in Syrie.

HTS leader al-Golani called on his fighters to respect the rights of religious minorities, not to loot and not to carry out revenge attacks against Assad supporters. Armed rebels freed tens of thousands of political prisoners from the Assad regime's prisons, including the notorious Sednaya prison. This "human slaughterhouse" has become the symbol of the brutal Assad dictatorship in recent decades. After Assad's flight, al-Golani also announced his intention to cooperate with Assad's Prime Minister Mohammed Jalali, and an interim Prime Minister was appointed.

Parallel to the HTS offensive, the “Syrian National Army” (SNA), which is closely allied with Turkey, launched Operation “Dawn of Freedom” on November 30. The SNA captured the cities of Tell Rifaat and Manbij, and according to the United Nations, about 100.000 people have fled to Kurdish-controlled northeastern Syria in the past week. In the two Kurdish neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh, things remain calm for the time being.

In northeastern Syria, the Deir ez Zour Military Council, part of the Syrian Kurdish-controlled Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in turn captured the provincial capital of Deir ez Zour and several villages in the eastern part of Deir ez Zour province. However, the city of Deir ez Zour was recaptured by HTS shortly after.

The fall of the Syrian regime seems to have come out of the blue, and No one could have foreseen that the Assad regime would collapse so quickly like a house of cards.

But it is not as if the fighting of the past weeks has come out of nowhere. On the contrary: although Syria has increasingly become a “forgotten conflict” ignored by the international community in recent years, the guns have never really been silent. 

The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria warned as early as March 2024 that the country had seen the worst escalation of violence since 2023 since late 2020. In September 2024, the Syrian army and its allies intensified their attacks on Idlib province, with 14 attacks between 17 and 122 October alone. According to the United Nations, at least 2024 civilians were killed or wounded in Idlib over the course of October 120, and hundreds of families were displaced. On 1 November, the United Nations again warned of a further escalation of violence, in a context already marked by dozens of Israeli airstrikes, reciprocal attacks between US forces and pro-Iran militias, a doubling of attacks by the “Islamic State” (IS), fighting between the SDF and local tribes in Deir ez Zour, and fighting between the SNA and the SDF in the north of the country.

De HTS operation launched in late November 2024, under the name “Deter Aggression” (“Deterrence of Aggression”) should also be seen in that context, according to several experts, as a response to the increased regime violence in Idlib. Initially, the aim would have been to neutralize military installations west of Aleppo, but due to the rapid collapse of the Syrian army (and the weakened position of Assad's main allies: Russia, Lebanon's Hezbollah and pro-Iran militias) the offensive soon took on a broader character.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was founded in 2017 and has been in control of large parts of Idlib province since 2019, where it also established a so-called “Salvation Government”. The organization is on a UN sanctions list and is a spin-off of the terrorist group Al Qaeda.

Although HTS has struck a more moderate tone in recent years - and in recent weeks in particular and consistently stressed that its fight is directed exclusively at Syria, the United Nations and human rights organizations have documented numerous human rights violations, repression and war crimes in Idlib in recent years. At the same time, the organization, and the “Salvation Government” under its control, have taken a relatively pragmatic approach in recent years to making humanitarian aid possible in Idlib.

The SNA, a constellation of armed groups supported and largely controlled by Turkey, has been active in the northwestern border region between Syria and Turkey for years. Areas under SNA control are characterized by large-scale human rights violations and war crimes, as documented earlier this year by the human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW).

The SNA, together with their Turkish overlords, is clearly emerging as an arch-enemy of the Syrian Kurds, who have built up an “Autonomous Administration” in the northeast of the country in recent years. The Syrian Kurdish “People’s Protection Units” (YPG), which are closely affiliated with the Turkish Kurdish PKK, are also the dominant force within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which was founded in 2015 and was instrumental in liberating northeast Syria from the terrorist group Islamic State.

In the southern provinces of Daraa, Suweida and Quneitra, the dominant rebel group is the so-called “Southern Operations Room” (SOR), which largely consists of former Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels and Druze militias such as the al-Jabal Brigade. Many of these rebel groups were defeated by the Syrian army in July 2018, but were able to retain some autonomy under Russian-facilitated “reconciliation deals” and rebelled again between November 2018 and September 2021. Ahmed al-Awda, the leader of the so-called “Fifth Corps”, has recently emerged as one of the most important southern leaders.

The Syrians themselves respond with a combination of disbelief, joy and hope but also with uncertainty about what the future will bring. In recent days, spontaneous parties and an explosion of joy broke out all over the world, including in several Flemish cities, to celebrate the end of 52 years of Assad dictatorship.

11.11.11 has been working closely with various Syrian organizations for many years who are active throughout Syria and neighboring countries. These partners have also been busy in recent weeks to respond to these historic developments.

Zo Syrians for Truth and Justice (STJ) and Hevdesti document human rights violations in northern Syria, and Hevdesti also provides emergency humanitarian aid and legal support in Raqqa and Hasakeh governorates. Another 11.11.11-partner, olive branch, immediately took action and set up a emergency plan of six months. In this way, Olive Branch wants to provide Syrians in Aleppo, Idlib, Suweida, Dar'a and rural Damascus with food aid, psychological help, education and winter aid, among other things. Women Now focuses primarily on the guidance and psychological support for freed prisoners, terwijl Basmeh & Zeitooneh (B&Z) will continue to focus on the strengthening the capacity of local initiatives throughout the country. The organization has been active in various parts of Syria since 2011, but has had to do so in the utmost secrecy all this time – until a few days ago.

The challenges facing Syria are enormous. First and foremost, it is essential to let Syrians speak for themselves, and to put their voices and perspectives at the heart of public and political debates about the future of the country.

Belgium and the European Union can also play an important supporting role in putting Syria back on the right track, after decades of the horrific Assad dictatorship. 11.11.11 proposes, among other things, the following measures:

• Diplomatic acceleration: An immediate implementation of UN Security Council resolution 2254 of December 2015, which provides for the establishment of a transitional government, the creation of a new constitution and the holding of free and fair elections. European countries should also make it clear that Turkish and Israeli attacks on Syria must cease, and urge Turkey to halt human rights violations by the Syrian National Army (SNA).
• Humanitarian aid and access: An immediate increase in humanitarian aid to Syria, and the adoption of a UN Security Council resolution reopening the border crossings with Turkey, Jordan and Iraq for cross-border humanitarian aid. It is essential that Syrian organisations also receive the necessary support to continue and scale up their vital work.
• Safe and voluntary return: An explicit recognition that any return of Syrian refugees must be voluntary, and a refraining from hasty conclusions that Syria is suddenly safe for return. As long as the conditions for safe and voluntary return, as set out in a series of UN criteria, are not in place, there can be no forced return of Syrian refugees. An international monitoring mechanism should be established in the short term to assess the extent to which the conditions for safe return have been met. Given the uncertainty that will continue to prevail in Syria in the coming months and even years, support for Syrian refugees in Syria’s neighbouring countries must also be maintained.
• Support for local civil society: Syrian civil society organisations must be given a central place in discussions about the future of Syria.
• Accountability: European countries should press the new rulers in Damascus to accept the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, through ratification of the Rome Statute. In addition, bodies such as the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in Syria and the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria should be given full and unhindered access to the country to investigate serious violations of international law.